Page 334 - 2019 White Paper on the Business Environment in China
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9 White Paper on the Business Environment in China

2.14 Healthcare

Background increase and the sector will decrease in profitability.
This phenomenon is common in developing countries
An economic boom over the past three decades and is known as the Lewis Turning Point. China is
has transformed China from a poor farming expected to reach its Lewis Turning Point between
nation to the world’s second-largest economy. The 2020 and 2030. The number of Chinese aged 15 to 24
cradle-to-grave system of socialized medicine has (recent or impending additions to the workforce) has
improved life expectancy and lowered maternal already begun to decline, and is projected to decrease
mortality rates, but the system cannot adequately even further over the next few decades. One business-
support China’s population of more than one billion recruitment firm has projected that by 2030 China will
people. The major gaps and inequalities threaten to round out its thinning labor force by hiring workers
undermine China’s progress, social stability and financial from abroad (CSIS).
health. Also, healthcare scandals rocked the populous in
2018. In July, hundreds of thousands of children were By international standards, a country or region is
found to have been injected with faulty vaccines. The considered to be an “aging society” when the number of
news angered the public, rattling confidence in the people aged 60 or above comprises at least 10 percent
government and amplifying frustration with the health of the total population. World Bank analysis estimates
care system. The country does not have a functioning that life expectancy in China rose from 66 in 1979 to
primary care system, the first line of defense for illness 76 in 2016, which means that older people are living
and injury. The World Health Organization notes that longer. According to the latest available data from the
China has one general practitioner for every 6,666 finance ministry, pension expenses rose 11.6 percent
people, compared with the international standard of to 2.58 trillion yuan (US$409.4 billion) in 2016, leaving
one for every 1,500 to 2,000 people. Instead of going the government a 429.1 billion yuan tab to cover the
to a doctor’s office or a community clinic, people rush shortfall. That shortfall reached 600 billion yuan in 2018
to the hospitals to see specialists, even for fevers and and is expected to climb to 890 billion yuan in 2020.
headaches. The deficiency in doctors has taken on more The gap between money coming in and payments
urgency as the Chinese government grapples with the going out has been widening as more people retire and
mounting health problems of its vast population. Heart fewer join the workforce (Press Trust of India). China,
disease, strokes, diabetes and chronic lung disease the world’s most populous country, estimates that
account for 80 percent of deaths in China (Wee). its ageing population will peak at 487 million senior
citizens in 2050. The figure is expected to represent
Aging Population nearly 35 percent of the country’s total population,
meaning China’s elderly population will be more than
China’s fertility rate has fallen to below population the total populations of Germany, France, Japan, and
replacement levels (the amount of births needed to Britain combined (Chi).
sustain population size) at just 1.7 children per woman.
In order for a population to maintain its size, the total The greying of China’s citizenry is expected to
fertility rate must be around 2.1 children per woman. For push costs for elderly care — including operations
a country whose economy remains reliant on affordable of retirement homes and medical services — up from
sources of labor to drive its manufacturing sector, some 7 percent of the country’s gross domestic product
China’s aging working population presents serious to more than 25 percent by 2050 (Liu, Chart). China’s
economic problems. As China’s large surplus labor pool Bureau of Statistics claimed there were on average 27
begins to dwindle, manufacturing wages are likely to beds at nursing homes for every 1,000 elderly people

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