Page 57 - AmCham South China 2026 Special Report on the State of Business in South China
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Chinese Companies
中资企业
American Companies
美资企业
Other Companies
其他国家企业
espite a prevalent expectation that US- 管多数企业预计2026年中美贸易紧张局
DChina trade tensions will escalate in 尽势可能加剧，但其对运营影响的预期正趋
2026, corporate forecasts indicate a parallel 于短期化。
shift toward anticipating shorter periods of
operational disruption. 绝大多数受访企业（89%）认为未来一年贸易争
端“非常可能”或“比较可能”升级，但这一比例较2024
A substantial majority (89%) of the studied
companies consider a further intensification 年下降了6个百分点。这一预期在美资企业中更为普
of the trade dispute to be “very likely” or “quite 遍，93%的美资企业预计紧张局势将持续升温，比例与
likely” in the coming year, though this figure 2024年持平。
represents a 6pp decrease from the previous
year. This outlook is particularly entrenched 值得关注的是，尽管企业对局势升温有所预判，
among American companies, with 93% expecting 但其对运营影响持续时间的预估正发生明显转变：预
escalation?a view that has remained constant 计中美贸易纠纷对业务运营影响超过三年的企业比
on a year-on-year basis. 例大幅下降10个百分点，降至37%；而认为影响可控
在六个月以内的企业比例则大幅上升10个百分点，
In a notable shift, despite anticipating 达到19%。
heightened tensions, companies are adjusting
their forecasts for the duration of the resulting Figure 59. Possibility of Escalation of US-China Trade
operational impact. The proportion of companies Dispute (2024 & 2025) (by Origins of Companies)
projecting that the effects will last more than 图表59.中美贸易纠纷扩大的可能性（2024&2025）（按照
three years has declined sharply by 10pp to 国家来源划分）
37%. Conversely, the share expecting a more
contained disruption period of less than six
months has surged 10pp, reaching 19%.
Very likely Quite likely
非常可能 比较可能
Quite unlikely Very unlikely
相当不可能 非常不可能
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