Page 9 - AmCham South China 2026 Special Report on the State of Business in South China
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US$3.39 trillion, capturing 51.9 percent of China’s 与上述趋势形成鲜明对比的是，去年中美贸易出
total trade value. This majority share represents 现明显下滑。其中，对美出口下降20%，自美进口下
a critical structural hedge. By prioritizing these 降14.6%。然而，企业需审慎解读这一数据。此番贸易
markets, China has partially insulated its export 收缩更多反映的是供应链的重新布局，而非美国市场
engine from Western decoupling pressures, 需求的简单萎缩。越来越多的中国中间产品先运往越
building a trade ecosystem less dependent on G7 南、墨西哥等第三方枢纽进行最终组装，再进入美国
demand cycles. 市场，从而在统计层面掩盖了中美两大经济体之间依
然存在的相互依存关系。
ASEAN solidified its position as China’s
largest trading partner, with total bilateral trade 海关数据显示，2025年，中国与亚太经合组织
exceeding US$1.02 trillion. This relationship has （APEC）其他经济体进出口总额达到26.29万亿
evolved from simple commodity exchange to 元人民币（约合3.79万亿美元），占全年外贸总值的
deep industrial integration, with Southeast Asia 57.82%。“十四五”规划期间（2021-2025年），中国
increasingly serving as the primary extension 与APEC其他经济体的累计贸易额达125.49万亿元
of China’s manufacturing base. With over 680 人民币，较“十三五“时期增长39.4%。这一转变或表
million people, this regional intergovernmental 明，“中国+1”战略正在向更加区域化的供应链配置
organization aims to foster regional peace, 模式演进。
stability, and economic growth, acting as a major
trade bloc. “中国+1”战略是企业为规避风险采取的一种
布局模式，即在保留中国作为重要制造基地的同时，
In stark contrast, trade with the United States 将部分产能分散至越南、印度或墨西哥等国家，以降
contracted sharply last year. Exports to the US 低对单一市场的依赖。该策略有助于企业降低成本、
fell 20%, while imports declined 14.6%. However, 规避关税，并增强供应链应对地缘政治与物流中断
businesses must interpret this data with nuance. 的韧性。然而，这一模式已不再局限于寻找替代采购
Rather than a simple evaporation of demand, 地，而是向区域化供应枢纽布局转型。中国正从西方
much of this contraction likely reflects supply 市场的最终组装中心，转型为向东南亚及共建“一带
chain rerouting. Chinese intermediate goods 一路”国家供应中间产品的核心工业引擎。因此，企
are increasingly shipped to third-party hubs, 业策略也正从“在中国，为中国”向“在中国，为全球”
such as Vietnam or Mexico, for final assembly 转变，依托中国大陆的供应链体系，服务全球南方的
before entering the US, masking the continued 高增长市场。
interdependence of the two economies.
鉴于中美之间持续开展对话，2026年中美贸易
Customs data showed that China’s total 关系预计将呈现阶段性缓和态势??在放缓但未停
trade with other APEC economies reached 26.29 止经济“脱钩”进程的同时，双边贸易将更多集中于非
trillion yuan (US$3.79 trillion) in 2025, accounting 敏感领域。特朗普总统已促成中国每年采购约2500
for 57.82 percent of the nation’s overall foreign 万吨美国大豆的协议。尽管高层协议确保了中国对美
trade for the year. Over the 14th Five-Year Plan 农产品采购，但结构性矛盾依然存在，这推动关键技
period (2021-25), China’s cumulative trade with 术及制造业领域供应链向更加多元化和安全化方向
other APEC economies amounted to 125.49 进行长期调整。尽管存在阶段性的缓和，两国均在强
trillion yuan, up 39.4% from the previous five-year 调提升自主能力，预计双边贸易规模将缩减至2017
period. This shift may suggest that the “China + 1” 年前水平的一半以下。
strategy is evolving to more regionalized supply-
chain configurations. 中国认为，贸易是推动实现更高水平自主自强
和提升全球影响力的催化剂。在华美国企业应在“谨
The China+1 strategy is a risk-mitigation 慎乐观”的环境中稳健前行，在盈利能力改善与经
approach where companies maintain 济基本面放缓及地缘政治风险之间寻求平衡。最后，
manufacturing in China while diversifying 《2026年华南地区经济情况特别报告》指出，国际企
operations into other countries, such as Vietnam, 业仍坚守中国市场，同时聚焦运营本土化、供应链多
India, or Mexico, to reduce dependency. This 元化，并密切关注不断变化的监管环境。
strategy helps companies cut costs, avoid tariffs,
and strengthen supply chain resilience against
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